November 2017

Some GOP Senators, notably Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), have begun floating the notion that their support of the GOP tax bill — which will kick 13 million people off of their insurance, raise premiums by double digits for millions more and trigger a $25 billion cut to Medicare all to give a tax breaks to the wealthiest and corporations — is contingent on Alexander-Murray being signed into law. However, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that pairing the Alexander-Murray bill with the repeal of the individual responsibility provision will still result in 13 million fewer people with coverage and double-digit premium increases. Moreover, it’s important to note who has expressed doubt this will happen: a lot of Republicans whose support is necessary for it to be signed into law.

House Republicans, from Speaker Paul Ryan on down, have voiced their opposition to Alexander-Murray. GOP Senators have expressed skepticism that Alexander-Murray could pass the House. And President Trump, who now claims to support it, previously opposed it, which he clarified after hinting at his support, which came after his initial opposition.

The tax bill might be voted on with a promise that Alexander-Murray will become law. Does that really seem like a promise that can be kept?

HOUSE REPUBLICANS HAVE VOICED OPPOSITION AT THE ALEXANDER-MURRAY BILL

House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI): “The Speaker Does Not See Anything That Changes His View That The Senate Should Keep Its Focus On Repeal And Replace Of Obamacare.” “‘The speaker does not see anything that changes his view that the Senate should keep its focus on repeal and replace of Obamacare,’ Ryan spox Doug Andres says.” [Tweet, 10/18/17]

Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC): CSRs Without Full Repeal “Pretty Much A Nonstarter.” “Still, some Republicans are skeptical of any bill that isn’t repeal. ‘It depends on what it is,’ said House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.). ‘The biggest thing I see with most of what they’re talking about is just extending … [subsidy] payments. And … [subsidy] payments without a transition to something that lowers premiums is pretty much a nonstarter.’” [Politico, 9/28/17]

Rep. Mark Walker (R-NC): “This Bailout Is Unacceptable.” “Rep. Mark Walker of North Carolina, chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee in the House, quickly denounced the deal over Twitter: ‘The GOP should focus on repealing & replacing Obamacare, not trying to save it. This bailout is unacceptable.’” [Associated Press, 10/17/17]

Rep. Dave Brat (R-VA): “No Way.” “Rep. Dave Brat (R-VA), a member of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, told The Daily Beast in a phone interview. ‘[Alexander-Murray], as it is? No way. It’s not even in the ballpark.’” [The Daily Beast, 10/19/17]

Rep. Dave Brat (R-VA): “Right Now It’s A Nonstarter.” “House conservatives appear united in opposition to the health care stabilization proposal crafted by Sens. Lamar Alexander and Patty Murray. ‘Right now it’s a nonstarter,’ House Freedom Caucus member Dave Brat said Tuesday during a Conversations with Conservatives press event.” [Roll Call, 10/24/17]

Reps. Jim Jordan (R-OH), Scott Perry (R-PA), Mark Walker (R-NC), Matt Gaetz (R-FL): All Oppose Alexander-Murray Agreement. “Brat, Freedom Caucus members Jim Jordan and Scott Perry, Republican Study Committee Chairman Mark Walker and Rep. Matt Gaetz all spoke to their opposition to the bipartisan accord. One aspect of the plan that conservatives oppose is the funding of cost-sharing reduction subsidies that the federal government pays to insurance companies to keep costs down for low-income individuals.” [Roll Call, 10/24/17]

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH): “We Should Not Be Funding The CSRs.” “‘It is a problem,’ Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan said. ‘We should not be funding the CSRs.’” [Roll Call, 10/24/17]

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC): “It’s An Insult For The Insurance Companies To Be Getting Subsidies.” “South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman added: ‘It’s an insult for the insurance companies to be getting subsidies. It really is.’” [Roll Call, 10/24/17]

EVEN REPUBLICAN SENATORS HAVE EXPRESSED SKEPTICISM THAT THE ALEXANDER-MURRAY BILL COULD PASS THE HOUSE

Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA): Alexander-Murray “Will Not Pass Unless Concerns Of The House Are Addressed.” “However, we recognize this short-term stabilization will not pass unless concerns of the House are addressed… Without a stabilization package, the market will collapse and advance premium tax credits will spike. This would increase the costs to the American taxpayer.” [Lindsey Graham Statement, 10/19/17]

Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO): “I Don’t Know” If Alexander-Murray Could Pass The House. “Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., a member of the Senate GOP leadership, said he believes the Senate could pass a bipartisan health care fix but wasn’t sure if it could clear the House or get President Trump’s signature. ‘I believe they’ll be able to come up with a proposal, and a number of senators will sponsor it,’ Blunt, R-Mo., said of the negotiations between Alexander and Murray. ‘I don’t have a sense of where the president’s going to wind up or where the House is. I think the Senate would likely be able to get something done there. But whether the other two essential players are willing to go in that direction, I don’t know.’” [Tennessean, 9/29/17]

AND PRESIDENT TRUMP FLIP-FLOPS ON HIS SUPPORT FOR ALEXANDER-MURRAY TOO MUCH TO BE TRUSTED

President Trump: “Senator Mike Rounds Of South Dakota Quoted Trump As Telling Republican Senators, ‘I Support The Alexander-Murray Bill.’” “Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota quoted Trump as telling Republican senators, ‘I support the Alexander-Murray bill.’ ‘He actually made it very clear that he supported the Alexander-Murray bill,’ Rounds said of the president’s remarks during a luncheon meeting with senators. ‘He sees it as a transition away from Obamacare.’” [Bloomberg, 11/28/17]

President Trump: “I’m Not Going To Do It.” “So when I knocked out the hundreds of millions of dollars a month being paid back to the insurance companies by politicians — I must tell you — that wanted me to continue to pay this, I said I’m not going to do it. This is money that goes to the insurance companies to line their pockets, to raise up their stock prices. And they’ve had a record run. They’ve had an incredible run, and it’s not appropriate.” [Politico, 10/18/17]

President Trump: “Congress Must Find A Solution To The Obamacare Mess Instead Of Providing Bailouts To Insurance Companies.” “While I commend the bipartisan work done by Sens. Alexander and Murray — and I do commend it — I continue to believe Congress must find a solution to the Obamacare mess instead of providing bailouts to insurance companies.” [Politico, 10/18/17]

President Trump: “I Can Never Support Bailing Out Ins Co’s Who Have Made A Fortune W/ O’Care.” “I am supportive of Lamar as a person & also of the process, but I can never support bailing out ins co’s who have made a fortune w/ O’Care.” [Tweet, 10/18/17]

President Trump: “For A Period Of One Year, Two Years, We Will Have A Very Good Solution.” “‘Alexander said the president had encouraged his efforts in phone calls over the past two weeks. And at the White House, Trump responded positively, expressing optimism that Republicans would ultimately succeed in repealing Obamacare, but until then, ‘For a period of one year, two years, we will have a very good solution.’ ‘It is a short-term solution so that we don’t have this very dangerous little period, including a dangerous period for insurance companies, by the way,’ he said during a Rose Garden press conference.” [Associated Press, 10/17/17]

We came across the White House’s talking points on the Senate tax scheme, which included a section supporting the provision that repeals our health care.

Here is what the administration isn’t saying:

1. 13 million more people won’t have health insurance. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated repeal of the individual responsibility provision would result in 13 million more people without health coverage.
2. Millions more people will see their premiums increase double digits. CBO also said premiums would increase 10 percent next year if the repeal provision were law.
3. Repeal would hurt rural areas, including Alaska, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada and Wyoming. An LA Times analysis found that the health repeal provision in the Senate Republican tax scheme would “derail insurance markets in conservative, rural swaths of the country…That could leave consumers in these regions — including most or all of Alaska, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada and Wyoming, as well as parts of many other states — with either no options for coverage or health plans that are prohibitively expensive.”
4. Many middle class people would see any tax cut they might get wiped away with higher premiums. As Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) said, “The fact is that, if you do pull this piece of the Affordable Care Act out, for some middle-income families, the increased premium is going to cancel out the tax cut that they would get.”

Here is what they are saying — White House Talking Points:

Tax Reform Talkers

State of Play

• Republicans have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to deliver historic tax reform for the American people.
• In survey after survey, the American people say they trust Republicans more on the economy than Democrats.
• This is Congress’s opportunity to show that trust is well-placed.
• The economy is revving up because of the President’s pro-growth, pro-American jobs agenda — including his historic efforts to eliminate crushing regulations — but also in anticipation of our plan to cut taxes for the middle class and American businesses.
• Now is the time to deliver.
• This tax reform plan expands economic opportunity so that every American has a chance to reach their dreams.
• That’s what this is all about: empowering American families to build a better life for themselves and their children.

Individual Mandate

• The President supports repealing the individual mandate as part of the tax reform plan.
• The mandate — which the Supreme Court ruled is a tax — disproportionately hits the lower- and middle-income families to whom we are working to provide relief.
• 79% of people who paid the penalty had household income below $50k.
• 86% of the penalties collected were from people in households with less than $100k.
• The President’s priorities have been consistent:
• Tax cuts for middle-class families,
• Simplifying the tax code for all,
• Slashing taxes for businesses of all sizes so they can grow, create jobs, raise wages for their workers, and compete in the global marketplace.
• We support using the savings from repealing the individual mandate to provide additional economic growth and tax relief for hardworking American families.

Johnson Amendment

• The President has maintained all along that he would like to see the Johnson Amendment repealed.
• That is why earlier this year he signed an executive order establishing that, among other things:
• It shall be the policy of the executive branch to vigorously enforce Federal law’s robust protections for religious freedom.
• All executive departments and agencies (agencies) shall, to the greatest extent practicable and to the extent permitted by law, respect and protect the freedom of persons and organizations to engage in religious and political speech.
• If Congress is able to use the tax bill as a vehicle to repeal the Johnson Amendment, the White House would support it.

Delay of Corporate Rate Cut

• Cutting our corporate tax rate from 35% — the highest among our economic competitors — to 20% — among the lowest — will level the playing field for American companies so they can dominate their global competition.
• This will be an infusion of rocket fuel into the economy, empowering companies to more quickly create jobs and raise wages.
• However, even if it does not go into effect until 2019, many other important changes will go into effect on January 1st and drive massive economy growth.
• Most notably, businesses will immediately be able to deduct 100% of the money they spend on capital investments for at least the next five years.
• This will empower manufacturers to buy the heavy machinery they need to grow and thrive in America.

House and Senate Bill Differences

• The legislative process is working exactly how it is supposed to, and both bills achieve the President’s priorities:
• Tax cuts for middle-class families,
• Simplifying the tax code for all,
• Slashing taxes for businesses of all sizes so they can grow, create jobs, raise wages for their workers, and compete in the global marketplace.
• Bringing back trillions of dollars American companies currently have parked overseas.
• We are on pace to deliver a Christmas present to the American people in the form of a massive tax cut.

Small Businesses / Pass-Throughs

• Both bills reduce the tax burden on businesses of all sizes — regardless of their structure. The bills help everyone from mom and pop shops to Main Street businesses to large manufacturers and other job creators.
• The House bill lowers tax rates on pass-through business income to 0%, 12% and 25% — the lowest top rate in more than 80 years. It also provides a special low rate of only 9% for the smallest businesses.
• The Senate bill allows all pass-through businesses in all tax brackets to deduct a portion of their business income so that 17.4% of their business income is completely tax-free.
• Both bills ensure that wealthy individuals cannot avoid taxes by characterizing all of their wages as business income.

Key tax cuts expiring in 2023 in the House bill and in 2026 in the Senate bill

• If you look at history, Congress has always extended tax benefits that make sense.
• They have extended tax cuts for middle-income families, and they have extended important business tax cuts that are good for the economy.
• There’s no reason to believe that would be any different here.

Top Line Responses to Questions about Details

• Is the White House supportive of [insert specific provision currently being debated]?
• What the White House is supportive of is:
• Cutting taxes for hardworking, middle-income families
• Cutting taxes on American businesses to make them more competitive
• Making the tax code more fair by eliminating special interest loopholes and deductions
• Making the tax code more simple so that the large majority of Americans can file their taxes on a single page
• The process is moving forward the way it’s supposed to in Congress, with members having input and ironing out the details.
• But what about the elimination of [insert deduction or credit]?
• Opponents of the bill are being disingenuous, because they are focusing on the elimination of targeted tax provisions while ignoring the tax cuts in the bill.
• In other words, they’re trying to get you to focus on the little sandbox — we’re trying to give you the entire beach!
• The Washington Post fact-checkers gave Democrats FOUR PINOCCHIOS for their claim that our tax plan will raise taxes on working-class families.
• “Any Democrat who spread this claim should delete their tweets and make clear they were in error.” — Washington Post

Middle-Class Tax Cuts and Bigger Paychecks

• We’re going to put over $5,000 PER YEAR in the pockets of hardworking American families through tax cuts and pay raises.
• Here’s how:
• The typical American family of four — making the median household income of $59,000 — would save well over $1,000 per year on their taxes.
• The Council of Economic Advisors estimates that middle-income families will also see higher household income — a minimum of $4,000 higher — as a result of the business tax cut.
• That’s why the President said we’re going to give the American people “a big, beautiful present for Christmas in the form of a tax cut.”

Tax Cuts for Jobs

• Numerous analyses show our plan will produce massive job creation and economic growth.
• The Council of Economic Advisors estimates:
• 3% to 5% increase in GDP over ten years.
• That means an additional $700 billion to $1.2 trillion in economic output.
• The non-partisan Tax Foundation estimates:
• Cutting the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20% will increase long-run GDP by 3.1 percent.
• 3.9% increase in the size of the U.S. economy.
• 3.1% higher wages for American workers.